Lincoln Property Company’s in-house Research and Valuation departments translate real-time data on local market trends into strategic guidance for our clients.
From the start of the pandemic, it has been recommended by ASHRAE and the CDC to follow certain rules to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in commercial environments. While there is nothing unique or over-complicated about these methods, they have proven to be effective time and time again.
In 2020 Midtown delivered almost 630K SF of new product and had an additional 11 buildings under construction totaling 4M SF (more than half of Atlanta’s total SF under construction). It is of note that while Midtown’s 5-year average for under construction SF sits at 2.3M SF, recent years have been white-hot for the submarket, undeniably pulling up the average. While market conditions in Atlanta are expected to soften, developers and investors are still bullish on the market’s future given that the product under construction is over 60% pre-leased.
Notable projects under construction include Norfolk Southern’s 750K SF HQ at 650 W Peachtree St (100% pre-leased), Selig’s 680K SF project at 1105 W Peachtree St (100% pre-leased), and MetLife’s 612K SF building at 1331 Spring St (48% pre-leased).
In 2020, the Atlanta Metro market delivered 3.3M SF of new office space and had an additional 33 buildings under construction totaling 7.1M SF. Of note, over 60% of the inventory under construction has been pre-leased, proving that demand in the market continues to exist in spite of the pandemic. Going forward, Atlanta’s construction pipeline should remain strong, but in check with just over 4M SF set to deliver in 2021.
Published: Feb 01 | 2021 Read More
The construction pipeline in Atlanta’s industrial market remains strong through the fourth quarter of 2020. The 19.5M SF of product currently under construction marks the continued acceleration of new construction: average construction pipeline in Atlanta over the course of 2019 was 16.9M SF. Average square footage under construction in 2018 was 15.3M SF, in 2017 was 13.3M SF, and continues to shrink further back in time. Along with a robust construction pipeline, deliveries through year end of 2020 are also strong: 17.1M SF delivered in 2020 is only behind 2016 for the most deliveries in a year. With regards to buildings under construction: they are large and roughly 75% are unleased. Across Atlanta, the average size of buildings under construction is nearly 415K SF and average occupancy across the metro region for buildings under construction is just under 26%.
Published: Jan 21 | 2021 Read More
Industrial cap rates have continued to march downward, falling from 6.34% in 3Q 2017 to 4.92% as of 3Q 2020. Cap Rates for Class A buildings have been particularly impressive, falling from 5.37% in 1Q 2018 to 4.67% in 4Q 2020. This is also taking into consideration that average asking rate across industrial Atlanta metro markets has grown at an impressive 5.38% annual rate from EOY 2019 to EOY 2020. At $1.14B, sale volume in 4Q 2020 is up by more than double the sales volume in 3Q 2020, recording the largest sales volume the Atlanta market has ever seen in a quarter and a year. The average building size for reported 4Q 2020 sales is 410K SF, which is up slightly from the 3Q 2020 transaction size of 378K SF.
Published: Jan 21 | 2021 Read More
Despite significant YoY increase resulting in 4.6 MSF of sublease inventory, the current sublease inventory is still less than all time high in Metro Atlanta.
Published: Nov 20 | 2020 Read More
Atlanta Industrial markets remain hot with E-Commerce showing no sign of slowing down soon. Rapid growth of e-commerce is a primary driver of demand for bulk storage facilities and smaller last-mile distribution facilities alike. Further, last-mile distribution centers are causing increased demand in non-traditional industrial markets that feature access to both critical population mass and labor pools. NNN Asking rates have increased to over $4.39 and are forecasted to continue increasing with demand still high. The demand for “last mile” centers in particular is being driven by online retail to allow near-immediate delivery to customers. Development within close proximity of the perimeter will continue to accelerate. Despite trade fears and some economic uncertainty, demand for industrial space should remain solid. The impacts of COVID-19 have not caused any concern in Industrial demand, and some would argue that there is and will continue to be more demand due to COVID-19 implications.
Published: Nov 20 | 2020 Read More
The construction pipeline in Atlanta’s industrial market remains strong through the third quarter of 2020. The 15.6M SF of product currently under construction marks the continued acceleration of new construction: average construction pipeline in Atlanta over the course of 2019 was 16.9M SF. Average square footage under construction in 2018 was 15.3M SF, in 2017 was 13.3M SF, and continues to shrink further back in time. Along with a robust construction pipeline, deliveries to date in 2020 are also strong: 12.5M SF delivered YTD puts 2020 on pace to be behind only 2019 & 2016 for the most deliveries in a year. With regards to buildings under construction: they are large and relatively unleased. Across Atlanta, the average size of buildings under construction is nearly 400K SF and average occupancy across the metro region for buildings under construction is just under 18%.
Published: Nov 20 | 2020 Read More
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With the arrival of 2020, North Fulton has only 143K SF of class A/B office space under construction, down from from 2019’s 514K SF under construction. Part of that is due to North Fulton having delivered over 384K SF in the first quarter of the year, eclipsing 2019’s entire deliveries by almost 118K SF. The 5-year average is approximately 64K SF per quarter. New deliveries include 10000 Avalon Blvd totaling 250K SF and 1 Edison Dr totaling 108 K SF. Current projects underway in North Fulton include Paddocks Medical totaling 60K SF and Alpharetta Provisions totaling 31.5K SF.
Published: May 27 | 2020 Read More
Rate in Buckhead continued its upward climb in the first quarter of 2020, moving up YOY by $0.50 or 1.4%. Net absorption for the quarter was negative at 107K SF, a significant drop YOY. Vacancy is up 20 bps YOY and 53 bps QOQ, and has remained relatively flat over the past 3 years. 1Q20 saw leasing activity down over 50% YOY with only 204K SF signed. Atlanta continued to add office-using jobs with another 6,700 jobs added in the first quarter, although there will likely be significant job loss in the coming quarters due to COVID19.
Published: May 19 | 2020 Read More
Rate in Central Perimeter continued its upward climb in the first quarter of 2020, moving up YOY by $0.75 or 2.7%, and by $0.33 QOQ. Net absorption for the quarter skyrocketed to 867K, starting off the year at record pace. Not surprisingly, this puts 2020 on pace to outperform the submarket’s total net absoprtion over the span of 2014-2019. Given current events, anticipate a slodown in net absorption across Atlanta. Vacancy is down 10bps from 4Q19, but still up 1.1% over 2019. Vacancy has risen slightly over the past few years, but still significantly down from its peak in 2009-2011 of 20%+.
Published: May 19 | 2020 Read More
Rates in Midtown continued to explode in the first quarter of 2020, moving up YOY by $4.82 or 13.7%, but slowed down QOQ with only a $0.16 rise. Net absorption for the quarter was positive at almost 700K SF. This puts 1Q20 on pace to triple 2019’s total absorption, though with economic conditions and slower than average leasing velocity, net absorption will likely taper off through the rest of 2020. Class A/B average vacancy sits at 11.3%, down 40bps YOY and down 150bps QOQ due to the quarter’s strong positive absorption.
Published: May 19 | 2020 Read More
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Atlanta Industrial markets remain hot with E-Commerce showing no sign of slowing down soon. Rapid growth of e-commerce is a primary driver of demand for bulk storage facilities and smaller last-mile distribution facilities alike. Further, last-mile distribution centers are causing increased demand in non-traditional industrial markets that feature access to both critical population mass and labor pools.
Published: Dec 10 | 2019 Read More
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Rate in central Perimeter continued its upward climb in the third quarter of 2019, moving up YOY by a solid $0.83 PSF, or 3% over 3Q 2018. Net absorption for the quarter was negative 100K SF, bringing Central Perimeter YTD to negative 500K SF and marking the third quarter in a row of negative net absorption.
Published: Nov 11 | 2019 Read More
Rate in Midtown continued its upward climb in the third quarter of 2019, moving up YOY by a massive $2.92 PSF, or 8% over 3Q 2019. Net absorption for the quarter was positive at 71K SF, bringing Midtown YTD net absorption to 231K SF.
Published: Nov 11 | 2019 Read More
Rate in Buckhead continued its upward climb in the third quarter of 2019, moving up YOY by $1.44 and by $0.13 QOQ. Net absorption for the quarter was negative at 8K SF, bringing Buckhead YTD net absorption to a paltry 32K SF.
Published: Nov 11 | 2019 Read More
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The construction pipeline in Atlanta’s industrial market remains strong through the third quarter of 2019. The 16.9M SF of product currently under construction marks the continued acceleration of new construction: average under construction pipeline in Atlanta over the course of 2018 was 15.3M SF, average square footage under construction in 2017 was 13.3M SF, in 2016 was 14.7M SF, and continues to shrink moving further back in time. Along with a robust construction pipeline, deliveries to date in 2019 are also strong: 8.2M SF delivered YTD puts 2019 on pace to match 2018, and ranks second behind only 2016 for total square footage delivered. With regard to buildings currently under construction: they are large and relatively unleased.
Published: Nov 05 | 2019 Read More
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Atlanta Industrial markets remain hot with E-Commerce showing no sign of slowing down soon. Online sales are slated to increase to $1 trillion dollars per year by 2030 (currently at $450 billion dollars per year) which would account for roughly 32% of all retail sales (currently at 12%). Asking rates have increased to over $4.50 and are forecasted to continue increasing with demand still high.
Published: Aug 16 | 2019 Read More
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Development in Atlanta Industrial markets shows few signs of slowing. E-commerce, which now represents more than 10% of the total retail pie in the U.S., is the most significant driver of demand in Metro Atlanta and elsewhere. As quickly as new product is delivered to market, it is absorbed. Metro Atlanta has delivered 3M SF of new supply YTD in 2019 and has 12.8M SF of supply currently under construction and scheduled to deliver in 2019.
Published: Jun 05 | 2019 Read More
Average overall gross rate in Central Perimeter retains its ranking of third place among Atlanta submarkets, despite relatively flat YOY growth. Growth from 1Q18 is $0.38 PSF, or a deflating 1.4%. While CO still ranks third for overall rate, Downtown is making a charge to take over this ranking, with Class A up $1.02 YOY, and Class B up an astounding $6.50 YOY.
Published: May 29 | 2019 Read More
Midtown experienced steady growth YOY, and now sits at a market leading $36.62 PSF. From 1Q18, this represents an increase of $1.34, or 3.8%. Net absorption was negative for the quarter at (11K SF). Vacancy increased in 1Q to 11.6% which is up 3.4% YOY. Vacancy hit a low of 8.23% in the first quarter of 2018, and has ticked back up by over 300 bps since then.
Published: May 29 | 2019 Read More
Rate was a bright point for Buckhead in the first quarter of 2019, moving p $1.98, or 5.9% from 1Q18. Net absorption was negative for the quarter at (21K SF), which is down 165K SF YoY. Vacancy bumped back up in 1Q by 70 bps to 14.3%, marketing the continuance of a relatively steady march back to 15%+ vacancy in Buckhead.
Published: May 29 | 2019 Read More
First quarter of 2019 in North Fulton was somewhat underwhelming. Rate was a high point for the submarket, coming in at $24.47 overall which is up $0.68 YOY or 2.9%. Rate growth in this market has been slowing consistently sine 2016, when average quarterly YOY rate growth clocked in at 9.2%.
Published: May 28 | 2019 Read More
Northwest had a strong first quarter in 2019, particularly compared to first quarter of 2018. Ovreall gross rate improved by $1.14 YOY, or 4.7%. While 4.7% annual growth is well above inflation, this actually falls below the 5-year average quarterly A/B rent growth in Northwest 5.9%
Published: May 28 | 2019 Read More
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Atlanta Industrial markets remain hot with e-Commerce showing no sign of slowing down soon. Online sales are slated to increase to $1 trillion dollars per year by 2010 (currently at $450 billion dollars per year) which would account for roughly 32% of all retail sales (currently at 12%). Asking rates have increased to over $4.50 and are forecasted to continue increasing with demand still high.
Published: Mar 12 | 2019 Read More
Development in Atlanta Industrial markets shows few signs of slowing. E-commerce, which now represents about 10% of the total retail pie in the U.S. is the most significant driver of demand in Metro Atlanta and elsewhere. As quickly as new product is delivered to market, it is absorbed. Metro Atlanta delivered 14.8M SF of new supply in 2018. While this doesn’t match peak CY deliveries of 19.2M recorded in 2016, 2018 delivered SF of 14.8M is more than twice the 2009-2017 average. Despite significant new supply, annual net absorption outpaced delivered, coming in at 16.5M SF for the year. Accordingly, occupancy increased by nearly 100 bps to a super tight 93.26%.
Published: Feb 20 | 2019 Read More
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Northwest turned in a varied 2018. Rate was a high point: At $24.67 combined Class A&B rate, Northwest is up $1.60 YOY, or 6.9%. While Northwest ranks 5th of 9 Atlanta submarkets for rate, it ranks 2nd of 6 suburban submarkets, behind only Central Perimeter.
Published: Feb 07 | 2019 Read More
Central Perimeter finished out 2018 on a positive note. At $27.68 combined Class A & Class B rate, Central Perimeter ranks #3 among Atlanta submarkets, behind Buckhead (2) and Midtown (1). Rate increased a respectable $1.53 YOY, which represents a YOY increase of 5.9%.
Published: Feb 06 | 2019 Read More
North Fulton turned in a relatively mixed 2018. Rate was a high point: At $24.28 combined Class A & B rate, North Fulton is up $1.16 YOY, or 5%. While North Fulton ranks 6th of 9 Atlanta submarkets for rate, it ranks 3rd of 6 suburban markets, behind only Central Perimeter and Northwest.
Published: Feb 06 | 2019 Read More
Midtown turned in an impressive 2018. At $36.63 combined Class A & Class B rate, Midtown ranks #1 among Atlanta submarkets, ahead of even the vaunted Buckhead submarket. Rate increased an astounding $4.41 YOY, which represents an increase of 13.7%
Published: Feb 06 | 2019 Read More
Buckhead finished out 2018 on a positive note. At $34.98 combined Class A & Class B rate, Buckhead ranks #2 among Atlanta submarkets, behind only white-hot Midtown. Rate increased a respectable $1.61 YOY, which represents a YOY increase of 4.8%
Published: Feb 06 | 2019 Read More
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North Fulton turned in a solid quarter for 2Q18: rents are up $1.00, or4.3% YOY; vacancy essentially remained flat, and impressive, at 12.5%; leasing activity was down from prior year same quarter, but at 638K SF, ranked #1 out of Atlanta submarkets. Despite strong leasing activity, net absorption was negative, and down YOY, however N fulton delivered 47K SF in 2Q, and has delivered 296K SF YTD.
Published: Sep 20 | 2018 Read More
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While rents in Northwest Atlanta are up 4.6% YOY, that appears to be the only good news looking at the chart on the right, as all fundamentals have seemingly softened since 2Q17. With some additional context however, this is not necessarily the case: while net absorption is down YOY, 122K SF net absorption in 2Q is significantly better than the 10 and 5-year averages (2008-2017), of 11K SF/Q and 71K SF/Q, respectively.
Published: Sep 18 | 2018 Read More
Class A rents (on a gross basis) in Midtown grew from $36.24/SF in 1Q to $37.19/SF in 2Q, an increase of 2.6%, or 10.4% on an annualized basis. For class B properties, rents increased from $23.87/SF to $26.10/SF, an astonishing increase of 9.3% for the quarter, or 37.2% annualized. If rent is any indicator, Midtown is on fire.
Published: Sep 18 | 2018 Read More
Class A rents (on a gross basis) in Central Perimeter grew from $30.44/SF in 1Q to $30.51/SF in 2Q, an increase of 23 bps, or sub 1% growth on an annualized basis. For class B properties, rents increased from $22.47/SF to $22.53/SF, a similarly modest increase. While rent growth seems to have slowed in 2Q, it is worth noting that the CAGR for Central Perimeter from 2014 through 2018 is 5.5%, an unsustainable permanent rate of growth.
Published: Sep 18 | 2018 Read More
Downtown office leasing fundamentals continued to improve in 2Q18. Asking rates YOY are up a healthy 9%, and QOQ by 1.9%. Vacancy continued to decline in 2Q, and is approaching historic lows. With vacancy at 10.4%, Downtown ranks second in Atlanta (behind Midtown) for vacancy. Net absorption was an impressive 128K SF in 2Q, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption, and ranking Downtown 1st for net absorption in 2Q18.
Published: Sep 18 | 2018 Read More
Buckhead office leasing fundamentals showed improvement during 2Q18. Rates are up $0.37, or 1.1% from 1Q18. Net absorption is positive for the third quarter in a row, at 112K SF. Vacancy is down 70 bps YOY. There are no projects under construction at end of 2Q18, and only 139K SF delivered in the past 12 months, limiting supply for the foreseeable future. Significant 2018 transactions include Aon:65K SF at Three Alliance, Coyote Logistics: 48K SF at Armour Yards, and WeWork: 48K SF at Terminus 100.
Published: Sep 18 | 2018 Read More
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During the current economic cycle, metros across the nation have seen of a new type of development emerge. These developments feature mixed-use, urban-esque environments that emphasize density and walkability, in a suburban setting. Remarkably, these developments experience significant pre-leasing activity, at rental rates closer to urban, infill development, than their suburban neighbors. In Atlanta, office space in these developments outpaces next-door developments by as much as $10 per square foot, a 35% premium in what has historically been a tenants’ market. What is driving this phenomenon?
Published: Feb 21 | 2018 Read More
Atlanta’s Northwest saw rapid growth in 2017, due in part to the momentum surrounding The Battery at Suntrust Park. Not only was the Northwest one of the few markets to actually see
an increase in Net Absorption in 2017, average asking rates also saw a ‘Braves Bump’ in 2017, increasing by $1.53 PSF year over year.
In 2017, North Fulton ranked 3rd overall among major metro markets with nearly 300k SF in positive net absorption. However, this was not enough to offset the effect of 357,575 SF of deliveries, which actually pushed up North Fulton’s marketwide vacancy rates despite positive net absorption. Although leasing activity fell when compared with 2016’s levels, this is partly due to North Fulton’s remarkable 12% vacancy rate, which is incredibly low for a true suburban market.
Published: Feb 12 | 2018 Read More
Over 2017, Midtown led all Atlanta submarkets in rent growth, as average asking rates rose $3.47 PSF during 2017. Midtown also saw 286,290 SF of positive net absorption, pushing vacancy below nine percent by the end of the year. Although leasing activity remains strong, overall net absorption fell by nearly 500,000 SF in 2017 when compared with 2016’s figure.
Published: Feb 12 | 2018 Read More
Although Central Perimeter finished 2017 with negative net absorption and low rate growth, Atlanta’s largest Class A Market led all submarkets in one important category: Leasing
Activity. With 1.9M SF of deals signed in 2017, Central Perimeter outpaced second place North Fulton by 22%. Although sublet space ranks #2 behind Atlanta’s Northwest submarket, this figure fell by nearly 50% YOY when compared with YE 2016.
Although Buckhead’s robust post-recession rental rate strength continued into the fourth quarter of 2017, rate increases moderated somewhat when compared with 2014- 2016’s astounding growth levels. Net absorption and leasing activity continue to remain slow as the trend to higher office densities is directly impacting absorption. Buckhead’s geographic core projects to remain relatively stable with only two parcels available for new construction projects.
Published: Feb 12 | 2018 Read More
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Development in Atlanta Industrial markets is not slowing down. The Atlanta airport has been able to handle the large quantities of e-commerce which has made Atlanta, specifically the I-85 S /
Airport submarket a hub for construction. In fact, that submarket accounts for 42.2% of all under construction properties over 50 KSF. Most of these properties break ground without a tenant.
However, due to high demand for these large warehouse spaces, the buildings are leased at the time of delivery.
2017 and the start of 2018 have seen a huge rise in co-working space in Atlanta. In fact, almost 20% of net absorption was generated through co-working tenants. Just within the last month, there were two deals signed: WeWork at Terminus – it’s second Buckhead location – and Office Evolution in Alpharetta. However, Atlanta is no stranger to co-working spaces. Industrious has a location in Ponce City Market, WeWork has two locations in Midtown, Spaces by Regus has inked deals all over the CBD.
Published: Feb 01 | 2018 Read More
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Real Estate’s old adage—“location, location, location”—takes on different meanings in different markets. In markets such as New York and San Francisco, physical constraints create price pressures that alter economic fundamentals during a recovery. These low-availability markets recover quickly, yet stall out as economic recoveries mature. By contrast, markets such as Atlanta and Dallas have few physical barriers to construction.
Although markets like Atlanta and Dallas take longer to recover, they accelerate as the economic recovery matures, with strongest growth figures occurring toward the end of the cycle. Supply is key to this behavior, and the reason why fundamentals in Atlanta look poised to overtake Dallas soon.
Published: Jan 19 | 2018 Read More
Retail in the U.S. is undergoing a dramatic change as lifestyle and consumption preferences shift away from brick-and-mortar stores, toward digital shopping experiences. Over the last few years, the victims of this trend—mostly big box retailers and power center tenants—have been forced to downsize, and in some cases, declare bankruptcy as consumers disappear and sales dwindle.
However, one category of retail—the food hall—has not only survived this trend, but has thrived, as consumers increasingly gravitate towards these collections of boutique ‘fast casual’ restaurants with shared seating. As consumption preferences continue their shift towards digital alternatives, what exactly draws consumers to food halls?
e-Commerce—also known as online retail—represents a fundamental change in the retail consumption model. The switch from “bricks to clicks” has driven unprecedented demand for distribution and logistics space throughout the United States. This demand has pushed the national industrial market into a super-cycle in which industrial fundamentals have bested historic records every year since 2013.
As of 2Q 2017, Atlanta is on pace to absorb 25.5 MSF before year’s end. That figure represents 25% more net absorption than it did in 2014, when it absorbed 19.7 MSF—the previous high-water mark of this cycle—and well above the Metro Region’s all-time best of 20.2 MSF, reached in 1998.
Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) fundamentals in Atlanta have been a hard sell for the last twenty-five years. Average rents for Office buildings in Atlanta have only increased by $1.88 per square foot—less than the rate of inflation1 —while average industrial rents have increased by only $0.70 per square foot. This phenomenon has a simple explanation: low construction costs, cheap land, and rapid arterial highway construction incentivized an “outward,” low-density growth model. Developers would buy cheap land one exit out, build brand new buildings, and scalp existing tenants by offering new construction at identical rental rates to preexisting product. This dynamic seemed as though it would continue indefinitely.
Published: Jan 19 | 2018 Read More
Although so-called “Creative Office” space comprises just 1.2% of Atlanta’s total office market, it represents the most important change in space use since the invention of the cubicle. Tenants and landlords have only begun to leverage Creative Space design principles to push rents past levels previously thought possible, while increasing worker productivity and satisfaction. Trends in this sector will define the American workplace for decades to come.
Published: Jan 19 | 2018 Read More
In recent years, we have witnessed the emergence of a new category of Office Space. Called “Creative Loft” space, this category of Office Space features expansive floor plans with large amounts of open space, often incorporating exposed duct work and sprinkler systems. These spaces are specifically designed to facilitate creative interaction—the primary value driver of a new breed of Office User. The highly-valued TAMI subset of office users—Tech, Advertising, Media, and Information tenants—prefer these spaces because these spaces enhance the TAMI business model. TAMI companies’ high profit margins and strong growth models, coupled with their strong preference for these spaces drives significant demand for these spaces.
Published: Jan 19 | 2018 Read More
The Atlanta Industrial market has shown consistent improvement during the most recent cycle. Atlanta’s lack of natural barriers to construction, robust transit infrastructure, and low cost of doing business have made it the go-to location for logistics-focused tenants. Over the last three years, Atlanta’s industrial market has absorbed over 65 MSF of space while only adding a still-impressive 44 MSF of new space. Although average cap rates are higher than the rest of the nation, Atlanta’s average cap rate of 6.04% is skewed by the number of older building trades, which have cap rate that are on average +/- 120 bps higher when compared with new construction.
Published: Jan 09 | 2018 Read More
In 2Q 2017, Atlanta’s industrial market continued its remarkable run, tallying nearly 6 MSF of positive net absorption after posting 5.6 MSF of positive net absorption in the first quarter. During the first half of 2017, 11.6 MSF of positive net absorption came against only 7.4 MSF of delivered product, pushing vacancy down to 6.9% market-wide. This has resulted in the lowest vacancy seen since Atlanta’s post-Olympic boom.
Published: Jan 09 | 2018 Read More
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Demand for smaller portable devices, such as laptops or cell phones has created advances in communications infrastructure, such as high-speed fiber optic lines and 5G cellular networks. As the devices became more compact and business began to use them for more tasks, digital service providers shifted resource-intensive data operations from the devices that display the content—computers, laptops, tablets and phones—to massive collections of servers. What does these changes mean for the future of CRE?
Published: Dec 20 | 2017 Read More